▲ 賴清德、蕭美琴將在5月20日就任中華民國第16任總統。（圖／記者李毓康攝）
● 方恩格（Ross Darrell Feingold）／前美國共和黨海外部亞太區主席
● 許淳恩／譯者
5月20日，賴清德將上任中華民國第16任總統。未來幾天將會有許多關於賴清德就職演說內容的猜測，特別是他對兩岸政策的看法。在就職演說後，這些內容不僅僅會被在台灣的「專家們」分析，在華盛頓特區和其他地方同樣也不例外。
就如同每一位民選的領導人一樣，賴清德最希望的是能在2028年贏得連任。因此，把他的就職演說與2016年5月20日蔡英文總統的首次就職演說進行相比的話，較為貼切。雖然蔡英文總統於2020年5月20日的第二次就職演說也可以作為比較的參考，但是由於當時是處於全球疫情肆虐的特殊情況，所以不太能完全相比。
以下是筆者將會在賴清德就職演說中關注的五件事：
一、務實台獨工作者：2017年9月26日，當時賴清德還在擔任行政院長時，他將自己描述為「務實的台獨工作者」。賴清德總統會在就職演說中重申一次嗎？畢竟，在涉及台灣與中國之間的關係時，無論他在總統競選期間內對兩岸關係做了什麼其他的評論，這個聲明都還一直是賴清德最有標誌性的名言之一。
▲ 賴清德擔任行政院長期間，將自己描述為「務實的台獨工作者」。（圖／記者林敬旻攝）
當然，在擔任行政院長時，賴清德可以輕而易舉地說出這句話，但當他擔任總統時，這句話的份量就變更重了。因此，賴清德不太可能會重申他這句定義台灣地位的名言。面對來自美國的壓力，以及中國可能會如何反應的擔憂，將會使得賴清德難以重複這一句話。
二、稱呼中國的方式：由於賴清德無法重申他是一位「務實的台獨工作者」，他將不得不找到其他的方式來說明中國和台灣是兩個互不隸屬的獨立國家。例如，「對岸」或「大陸地區」等稱呼方式無法強調兩岸互不隸屬。
在蔡英文2020年的就職演說中，她在中文版本裡稱中國為「對岸」，但英文版本裡卻是將其翻譯為「中國」；而這也是她演講中唯一一次直接提到中國。對此，賴清德總統最簡單的解決方法，就是在演說中統一稱呼為「中國」。
三、對中華民國的提及：每當總統在重大節日發表重要演說，如元旦或國慶日時，記者和評論家們都會去注意總統一共稱呼國家的正式名稱「中華民國」，或是「台灣」各幾次。例如，在蔡英文總統去年10月的最後一次國慶日演講中，媒體報導她總共提到「中華民國」5次、「台灣」37次。賴清德可能只會有1、2次是稱國家為「中華民國」，例如，當他在演說一開始指出自己已經宣誓就任中華民國總統時，或是在他承諾遵守中華民國憲法時。但是，不出意外的話，比起稱呼我國為「中華民國」的次數，他可能會提到更多次的「台灣」。
▲ 每當總統在重大節日發表重要演說，記者和評論家們都會去注意總統一共稱呼國家的正式名稱「中華民國」，或是「台灣」各幾次。（圖／路透）
四、經濟：蔡英文總統在2016年的就職演說中，很大一部分都是在談論經濟政策。蔡英文總統呼籲了「經濟結構的轉型」。在許多方面，她都實現了這樣的轉型，包括了一些著名的政策口號像是「前瞻基礎建設計畫」、「循環經濟」和「5+2產業創新計畫」。
在2016年的就職演說中，蔡英文總統還表示台灣將爭取成為區域貿易協定《跨太平洋夥伴全面進步協定》（CPTPP）和《區域全面經濟夥伴協定》（RCEP）的會員國。儘管台灣最終在2021年申請加入了前身為TPP的後繼協定CPTPP，但不確定台灣最終是否會被邀請加入成為會員國。此外，中國已經是RCEP的成員，因此台灣成功加入的可能性很小。或許，賴清德不要提到台灣加入這兩個貿易協定的願景會比較好。
五、與在野黨的關係：與前兩任總統蔡英文和馬英九不同，賴清德未在立法院享有多數席次。自從今年2月新一屆的立法院開議以來，已經有許多情況顯示，由國民黨占有多數席次的立法院將會和行政院或總統府之間產生不少摩擦。賴清德會提到這個問題嗎？還是他會提出與占有多數席次的其他政黨一起合作的建議？
▲ 由國民黨占有多數席次的立法院預期將會和行政院或總統府之間產生不少摩擦。（合成圖／記者屠惠剛攝）
除了立法以外，占有立院多數席次的政黨也渴望監督賴政府；而賴清德與在野黨之間要關注的點還包括了他從蔡英文總統繼承的轉型正義問題。事實上，蔡總統在2016年的就職演說中將一部分的時間用於談論這個議題，而她確實在這方面取得了不錯的成就。首先，立法院於2016年7月25日通過了《政黨及其附隨組織不當取得財產處理條例》。隨後，不當黨產處理委員會也凍結了許多國民黨底下的資產，使他們無法輕易重新取回。
另外，在賴清德的演說中還有其他要關注的事項。舉例而言，賴清德會和過去台灣政府的作法一樣，提及台灣最親密的盟友美國，並表示台美關係「堅如磐石」嗎？還是也和之前的政府一樣，提及「民主」與「專制」間的對抗？他是否會決定他的政府將繼續實行新南向政策？而他的演說又會有多少時間是要用來討論重要的國內社會議題，如長照政策、高房價和低薪問題？
2024年，全球各地將有許多地方舉行大選，而其中的一些國家也將會迎來新的領導人。然而，卻很少有一位新領導人像賴清德一樣受到如此密切的關注，並在地緣政治中扮演著重要角色。祝他好運！
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【英文版】
▲ William Lai will be inaugurated as the Republic of China’s 16th-term President on May 20th.（Photo／Yu-Kang Li）
On May 20th, William Lai will be inaugurated as the Republic of China’s 16th-term President. In the coming days there will be much speculation as to what Lai will say, especially about his China policy. After Lai delivers the inauguration address, it will be analyzed by “experts” not only in Taiwan, but in Washington DC and elsewhere.
Like every democratically elected leader in his first term, what Lai wants most of all is to win a second term in 2028. Thus, it’s more on point to compare his inauguration address to the first inaugural address of President Tsai Ing-wen delivered on May 20, 2016. President Tsai’s second inaugural address on May 20, 2020 is also useful as a comparison, though it was delivered under the unique circumstances of the global pandemic.
Here are five things this author will be watching for in Lai’s inauguration address:
1. Practical Worker for Taiwan Independence: On September 26, 2017 in the Legislative Yuan when he was Premier, Lai described himself as a “practical worker for Taiwan independence”. Will President Lai repeat the statement in his inaugural address? After all, when it comes to Taiwan’s relationship with China, this one statement is Lai’s most famous comment on the topic, regardless of what he said about Taiwan-China relations during the presidential campaign.
▲ Lai described himself as a “practical worker for Taiwan independence”.（Photo／HuI-Gang Tu）
Of course, it is easy for Lai to say this when was Premier, and more difficult to say it when he is President. Thus, Lai is unlikely to repeat his most well-known comment on Taiwan’s status. Pressure from the United States, and concern about how China might react, makes it impossible for Lai to repeat it.
2. References to China: As Lai cannot repeat that he is a “practical worker for Taiwan independence”, he will have to find other ways to describe China and Taiwan as two separate countries who don’t have sovereignty over the other. Descriptions such as “the other side” (對岸) or “mainland area” (大陸地區), don’t achieve the goal of emphasizing that each side doesn’t have sovereignty over the other.
In President Tsai’s 2020 inaugural address, she referred in Mandarin to the other side of the strait (對岸), but the English version translates it as “China”. This was the only direct reference in her address to China. The simple solution will be for Lai to refer to “China” throughout his address.
3. References to the Republic of China: Whenever the president makes an important address such as on New Years Day or National Day, reporters and commentators will note how many times the president refers to the country by its formal name, the Republic of China, versus how many times the president refers to the country as “Taiwan”. For example, in President Tsai’s final National Day address last October, media reported that she referred to the Republic of China five times, and to Taiwan thirty seven times. Lai will probably refer to the Republic of China once or twice, such as the beginning of his address when he notes that he has taken the oath of office as the Republic of China president, or, when he pledges to uphold the Republic of China Constitution. However, he is likely to refer to Taiwan many more times than he refers to the Republic of China, which will come as no surprise.
▲ Whenever the president makes an important address, reporters and commentators will note how many times the president refers to the country by its formal name.（Photo／Yu-Kang Li）
4. Economy: A large portion of President Tsai’s 2016 inaugural address was devoted to talking about the economy. President Tsai called for “Transforming Economic Structures”. In many ways President Tsai achieved such a transformation. Tsai’s economic policies include “buzz words” like Forward-looking Infrastructure Development Program, circular economy, and 5+2 innovative industries.
In her 2016 inaugural address Tsai also said Taiwan would pursue membership in the regional trade agreements the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Although Taiwan eventually applied in 2021 to join the TPP’s successor, the CPTPP, there’s no certainty Taiwan will ever be invited into the CPTPP, and with China a member of the RCEP, there is little likelihood that Taiwan can join. Perhaps it’s best for Lai that he not mention Taiwan’s hopes to join these two trade agreements.
5. Relationship With the Opposition: Unlike his two immediate predecessors, Tsai Ing-wen and Ma Ying-jeou, Lai will not enjoy a majority in the Legislative Yuan. In the few months since the new Legislative Yuan took office this past February, there are already numerous situations that show how difficult relations will be between the Legislative Yuan majority from the Chinese Nationalist Party, and the Executive Yuan or Presidential Office. Will Lai refer to this situation, and will he offer to work with the Legislative Yuan majority from a different political party?
▲ Lai will not enjoy a majority in the Legislative Yuan.（Photo／Yu-Kang Li）
In addition to lawmaking, and the Legislative Yuan majority’s desire to monitor the Lai government, Lai’s relations with the opposition will also include the issue of transitional justice that Lai inherits from President Tsai. In fact, President Tsai devoted a portion of her 2016 inaugural address to this topic, and she certainly achieved much in this regard, starting with the Act Governing the Settlement of Ill-gotten Properties by Political Parties and Their Affiliate Organizations that the Legislative Yuan passed into law on July 25, 2016, only two months after Tsai took office. Subsequently the Ill-Gotten Party Assets Settlement Committee froze many of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s assets, a situation the Chinese Nationalist Party has failed to recover from.
Separately, there are other things to watch in Lai’s address. Will Lai refer to Taiwan’s closest ally, the United States, and say that relations are “rock solid” as the Taiwan government often does? Will Lai refer to “democracy” versus “autocracy” as the Taiwan government also often does? Will Lai confirm that his government will continue the New Southbound Policy? How much of his address will be devoted to important domestic social issues such as elder care, housing costs, and low salaries?
In 2024 there is a large number of elections around the world. Some countries will have new leaders taking over. Few new leaders will be as closely watched, or have a vital role in geopolitics, as Lai. Good luck to him!
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